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inconsistent job – of reproducing seasonal changes the emission of LWR from cloudy skies and reflection of SWR from clear and cloudy skies. Finally, we have EBMs. When I look to earlier periods for Leonard’s “clear evidence of large variations in the past” (comparable to the last half-century), I run into serious problems. Past climate fluctuations can be due to a combination of naturally-forced and unforced variability. We don’t appear to have the The hottest product huginn and muninn viking symbol all over print quilt tools to separate one from the other . Unless we can extract the unforced component, it doesn’t serve as a precedent for how much unforced variability might have contributed to the 0.9 K of warming in the last half-century. Nor do we have the proxy data to determine that past variations have been “global” rather merely regional. There are clear signs

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